American Intelligence on Russias Role in the Modern System of International Relations

Podlesny, Pavel

doi:10.7868/S3034604525100109

PII

S30346045S2686673025100109-1

DOI

10.7868/S3034604525100109

Publication type

Article

Status

Published

Authors

Pavel Podlesny

Occupation: Candidate of Sciences (History), Leading researcher
Affiliation: Georgy Arbatov Institute for U.S. and Canada Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences (ISKRAN)

Volume/ Edition

Volume / Issue number 10(670)

Pages

123-127

Abstract

The article examines the U.S. Intelligence Community's Annual Threat Assessment 2025 with a focus on how it conceptualizes Russia's place in the international system and the implications for U.S. policy. The report situates Russia alongside China, Iran, and North Korea as a persistent state adversary, emphasizing both their deepening coordination and the rising risk of horizontal escalation across regional theaters. Two core claims about Russia are highlighted: first, the objectives of the special military operation are framed as an attempt to restore influence and secure guarantees in the post-Soviet space, which elevates the probability of inadvertent Russia–NATO confrontation; second, regardless of battlefield outcomes, the Russian state retains substantial resilience, making it a sustained challenge to U.S. interests. The article notes significant human and economic costs for Russia, growing dependence on China, and a narrowing of diplomatic maneuver, while also underscoring macroeconomic endurance (in PPP terms), expansion of defense-industrial capacity, and ongoing modernization of strategic forces. Externally, the assessment links the conflict to Western consolidation and NATO enlargement, alongside Russia's greater reliance on alternative platforms such as the SCO and BRICS. Although the ATA does not offer direct prescriptions, its analytic logic pushes U.S. decision-makers to account for escalation risks and the increasing connectivity of the China–Russia–Iran–North Korea alignment when calibrating policy toward Moscow.

Keywords

Ежегодная оценка угроз – 2025 разведывательное сообщество США Россия Китай Иран КНДР соперничество великих держав отношения Россия – НАТО военно-промышленный потенциал модернизация стратегических ядерных сил консолидация Запада расширение НАТО ШОС БРИКС внешняя политика США «ось» КНР – Россия – Иран – КНДР

Date of publication

06.12.2025

Year of publication

2025

Number of purchasers

Views

References

GOST	Podlesny P. American Intelligence on Russia's Role in the Modern System of International Relations // USA & Canada: Economics – Politics – Culture. – 2025. – Issue number 10(670) C. 123-127 . URL: https://usacanadaras.ru/s30346045s2686673025100109-1/?version_id=121804. DOI: 10.7868/S3034604525100109
MLA	Podlesny, Pavel "American Intelligence on Russia's Role in the Modern System of International Relations." USA & Canada: Economics – Politics – Culture. 10(670) (2025).:123-127. DOI: 10.7868/S3034604525100109
APA	Podlesny P. (2025). American Intelligence on Russia's Role in the Modern System of International Relations. USA & Canada: Economics – Politics – Culture. no. 10(670), pp.123-127 DOI: 10.7868/S3034604525100109

RAS Global AffairsСША & Канада: экономика – политика – культура USA & Canada: Economics – Politics – Culture

American Intelligence on Russia's Role in the Modern System of International Relations

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RAS Global AffairsСША & Канада: экономика – политика – культура USA & Canada: Economics – Politics – Culture

American Intelligence on Russia's Role in the Modern System of International Relations

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