- PII
- S268667300000616-7-1
- DOI
- 10.7868/S0000616-7-1
- Publication type
- Article
- Status
- Published
- Authors
- Volume/ Edition
- Volume / Issue 2 (578)
- Pages
- 5-19
- Abstract
- The article analyzes the situation around the NAFTA re-negotiation, which started on August 16, 2017. The U.S. Government entered negotiations seeking a substantial rebalance of trade policies that is perceived as highly unfavorable by Canada and Mexico. This article describes the negotiating positions of the three participating countries, their main principles and goals, major controversies, as well as the alignment of pro-NAFTA and contra-NAFTA forces. The growing complexity of the NAFTA re-negotiations, which became evident during the fourth round of negotiation in mid-October, has resulted in the delay by 3 weeks of the fifth round and the extension of negotiations into 2018. This is not to say that NAFTA negotiations are doomed. But, it does mean that the negotiations are in trouble and there is a reasonable prospect of NAFTA's termination. The article assesses some of the post-NAFTA scenarios and their impact on the North American economy and integration. Among those analyzed are short-term and long-term perspectives. Possible scenarios look as follows: reaction of the American Congress to the U.S. unilateral withdrawal from NAFTA, fallback to the original Canada-U.S. FTA (CUSFTA), opening by the U.S.A. of two parallel trade negotiations with Canada, and Mexico, reversion to the WTO Most Favored Nation regime. 18 The research is based on official negotiating positions released in 2017 by Mexico, Washington and Ottawa, press-releases, speeches and interviews by President D. Trump, Secretary of Commerce W. Ross, and U.S. Trade Representative R. Lighthizer, think-tanks commentaries, hearings held in June at the US International Trade Commission, trade statistics, media op-eds and analytics.
- Keywords
- NAFTA, NAFTA re-negotiation, possible scenarios, North American economic integration, regional free trade agreements, D. Trump, American protectionism, U.S.-Canada-Mexico trade and economic relationship
- Date of publication
- 09.02.2018
- Year of publication
- 2018
- Number of purchasers
- 8
- Views
- 1349
RAS Global AffairsСША & Канада: экономика – политика – культура USA & Canada: Economics – Politics – Culture
- ISSN (Print) 26866730
- ISSN (Online) 3034-6045
THE FUTURE OF NAFTA
Индексирование
Scopus
Crossref
Higher Attestation Commission
At the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Scientific Electronic Library