USA & Canada: Economics – Politics – CultureUSA & Canada: Economics – Politics – Culture268667303034-6045Russian Academy of Science10.31857/S268667300008877-4The U.S. Presidential Elections 2020: Phase of Caucuses and PrimariesПрезидентские выборы 2020 г.: первый этапhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-8215-2101TravkinaNatalyaТравкинаНаталья Михайловнаtravkina.n.m@gmail.comИнститут США и Канады РАНInstitute for the U.S. and Canadian Studies, RAS1004202042342

The first phase of party caucuses and primaries of the 2020 presidential кcampaign, which started on February 3 this year in Iowa, is analyzed. It is indicated that the phase of party caucuses and primaries will last 4 months and will end in early June this year. After that, the parties will hold party congresses: the Democratic party in July in Milwaukee (Wisconsin), and the Republican party in August in Charlotte (North Carolina). It is noted that in the Republican party the current president D. Trump is an uncontested candidate who will be definitely nominated by the Republican party for run for U.S. President. The most interesting are caucuses and primaries in the Democratic party, which so far have put forward two main candidates – the former U.S. Vice President in the Obama administration from 2009 to 2017 J. Biden and Senator from Vermont B. Sanders. From the very beginning of the presidential race the leadership of the Democratic Party embarked on the path of the maximum possible opposition to the candidacy of B. Sanders and providing of all kinds of support, including using the administrative resource, for J. Biden. The general concept of opposition to B. Sanders is that by the opening of the Democratic Party Congress in July 2020 he would not get the necessary 1991 votes of the pledged delegates needed to nominate him in the first round of кelections, and thus decide the fate of the Democratic party candidate within so called “Contractual congress”, when the main role will be played by the behind-the-scenes agreements of the party’s leadership and its main sponsors, which most likely, would approve the candidacy of J. Biden. In this scenario, the presidential race in the Democratic party would кbe very similar to the 2016 presidential campaign, when H. Clinton and B. Sanders fought for the presidency, but if during the last Presidential election a large split in the ranks of the Democrats was avoided, then during the current campaign the likelihood of a split between the center and the left, populist flank is very high with all the possible consequences for the outcome of the general presidential election on November 3, 2020.

Анализируется стартовавший 3 февраля в штате Айова первый этап президентской кампании 2020 г. – этап партийных собраний и первичных выборов. Указывается, что он продолжится четыре месяца и закончится в начале июня. Затем партии проведут национальные съезды: Демократическая партия – в июле в городе Милуоки (штат Висконсин), Республиканская партия － в августе в городе Шарлотте (штат Северная Каролина). Отмечается, что действующий президент Д. Трамп является безальтернативным претендентом в кандидаты от Республиканской партии и будет выдвинута на пост президента США на съезде в августе. Наибольший интерес представляют партийные собрания и первичные выборы в Демократической партии, которые обозначили двух основных претендентов － бывшего вице-президента США в администрации Б. Обамы с 2009 по 2017 г. Дж. Байдена и сенатора от штата Вермонт Б .Сандерса. С самого начала президентской гонки руководство Демократической партии встало на путь максимально возможного противодействия Б. Сандерсу и всяческой поддержки, в том числе с использованием административного ресурса, Дж. Байдена. Общая концепция противодействия Б. Сандерсу состоит в том, чтобы к июлю, к началу съезда Демократической партии, он не набрал 1991 голоса делегатов в первом туре голосования, необходимых для его выдвижения в кандидаты на съезде. Если и Байдену не удастся набрать необходимого количества голосов делегатов съезда, вопрос о кандидате в президенты от Демократической партии должен быть решен в рамках так называемого «договорного съезда», когда основную роль будут играть закулисные договорённости руководства партии и её основных спонсоров, которые, по всей видимости, утвердят кандидатуру Дж. Байдена. В рамках этого сценария президентская гонка у демократов была бы весьма похожа на кампанию 2016 г., когда за выдвижение на пост президента боролись Х. Клинтон и Б. Сандерс. Однако если на прошлых президентских выборах большого раскола в рядах демократов удалось избежать, то в ходе нынешней кампании вероятность раскола между центром и левым, популистским флангом, весьма высока со всеми возможными последствиями для итогов президентских выборов 3 ноября 2020 года.

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